Author: digital.media@rbpagency.com

The Mintec Benchmark price for English white potatoes soared to an unprecedented £570/MT on April 16th, marking a staggering 90% increase compared to the previous year. This surge in price reflects tightening supply dynamics, prompting market sources to anticipate a continued upward trend in the months ahead.

Of particular significance is the pricing of Maris Piper potatoes, which have soared to £610/MT, marking an astounding 144% surge compared to the previous year. Despite this remarkable spike, trade activity for Maris Piper remains subdued across the UK due to constrained availability. Speculation is rife that the price of white potatoes may soon surpass that of Maris Piper before the 2024 harvest, as growers strategically withhold stocks in anticipation of further price escalations.

Meanwhile, import activity into the UK continues unabated, with ongoing shipments arriving from key sources including the EU, Israel, and Egypt. Notably, certain supermarkets have opted to remove the Union Jack from packaging, while white potato imports fetch prices ranging between £520/MT and £600/MT, reflecting disparities in quality.

As planting operations unfold, selected regions of England, particularly those with lighter soils, have commenced their activities, while Scotland is yet to initiate planting. Delays in planting could potentially impact the timing of the 2024 harvest, raising concerns among industry stakeholders.

Turning to the Ukrainian market, a shortage of quality potatoes has created challenges for wholesale companies and retail chains alike, struggling to meet escalating demand. This scarcity has provided farmers with an opportunity to increase prices for high-quality potatoes, with current shipments commanding 16-23 UAH/kg ($0.42-0.60/kg), marking a significant 14% increase from the previous week.

Driving the price surge is a diminishing supply of high-quality potatoes on Ukrainian farms coupled with surging demand. Even lower-quality products are fetching premium prices in this environment, with the average cost of potatoes in Ukraine now 2.8 times higher than in early March 2023. With the supply crunch exacerbating further, market operators brace for continued price escalations in the foreseeable future.

The outlook for May-July which traditionally marks the end of old season marketing in the UK and the cross over in mid July to Mid August to new season, looks set to see a continued tightening from the supply side. Certain varieties are now in extremely limited supply, that coupled with a lower than normal import availability from the mediterranean export countries, plant health concerns in Egypt and a tightening old crop position in the EU will only compound the current scenario.

It is highly likely that changes will be required to variety and country of origin specifications to ensure we keep the market supplied. We are currently working with customers to secure these variety approvals both to utilise more old season varieties from the EU and to open channels for new season imports. We are actively looking at importing new season potatoes from Spain, both loose skin for the new potato and salad market and set skinned when ready for the chipping sector. Programs from Israel are fixed and more limited than usual.

As we look towards new crops, we’ve made good progress with this season’s planting on lighter soils and free draining Wold land, and these potatoes have planted in better conditions than last season – we now just need some warmth to increase soil temperatures, which are currently below average to get the crop moving. In Cornwall and the West it’s a different story where the ground is still very wet and we are significantly behind on planting, with decisions being taken in some selected areas not to plant at all this season as crop in this area will be too late for its target market, and we have moved the seed to other regions to be planted closer to intended market- albeit recognising that it will be later in the marketing plan.

Heavy soils are still slow to dry and we have had to withdraw from some of our heavy land and move back onto the Wolds, to give the silts more time to dry. At time of writing- Sunday 28th of May we are 45% planted nationally across the AKP portfolio. We woke up to between 15 and 24 mm of rainfall this morning across all of our remaining planting areas which will now need a few dry days before our teams can resume 24 crop planting with the inevitability that a larger than normal percentage of the crop will be planted in May.

On a positive note we continue to keep our customers served, the supply chain and our partnerships are resilient and we are working together to make the best of a really difficult situation. We are harvesting and salvaging some of last year’s crop in both South and North Lincolnshire and recovering between 7 and 10 tonnes per acre (50%) which is just viable versus the cost in the current market.

Last year, the potato supply chain was impacted by several challenges that unfortunately lead to poor-yielding crops. A cold, late spring and drought until June followed by unprecedented rainfall in the autumn months resulted in poor quality crops in store, and large amounts of potatoes left unharvested, resulting in a very tight supply scenario, with the market experiencing a near-800,000 tonnes shortage in potatoes. 

These challenges brought the risks associated with growing potatoes to light, and paired with a shortage of seed potatoes for 2024, growers have been questioning the benefits of growing potatoes. The cost associated with potato farming has also increased significantly over the past two seasons, with customer contract prices struggling to keep pace with inflation in some cases, all adding to the commercial stress within the supply chain. 

A new government support regime for agriculture promises to support growers and remove land from food production and put it into environmental schemes – a good return for little work and investment. 

“Speaking at the National Farmers Union Conference in Birmingham, the Prime Minister and the Environment Secretary announced a range of measures to boost productivity and resilience in the sector, including the largest ever grant offer for farmers in the coming financial year, expected to total £427 million.

This includes doubling investment in productivity schemes, bolstering schemes such as the Improving Farming Productivity grant, which provides support for farmers to invest in automation and robotics, as well as solar installations to build on-farm energy security.” (Source: https://www.gov.uk/government/news/government-underlines-commitment-to-british-farmers)

There are some customers who have listened and understood the results of 2023 crops, and have adapted supply terms to make the best use of the crops that are available, whereas other customers have struggled to come to terms with the shortage. This split is also apparent with 2024/25 contract prices, with some customers moving towards sensible price increases and others ignoring the issues. 

It is positive that we are seeing an increasing number of the most forward-thinking, major buyers adapting their pricing, as well as quickly changing their specifications to respond to difficult seasons – in recognition of the risks and changes needed to ensure grower returns and sustainability. 

This needs to continue and buyers that don’t respond to these new market challenges risk being left behind. Change doesn’t happen overnight, but we are certainly seeing those that will lead the way making these changes now, and they will be the ones with potatoes secured for the 2024-25 season.

 It’s important to keep in mind that with the right contracting and marketing plans, there are still very profitable returns to be made from growing potatoes. The issues associated with seed will continue to be turbulent for a year or two yet, but there are solutions on the horizon. We’ve been working closely with seed breeders and our customers to strengthen the seed supply chain, ensuring there are key varieties for future growing programmes. 

There is still seed available for 2024 planting, and AKP can provide solutions and support to growers who aren’t fully covered. Our customer position is continuing to evolve with all customers wanting more reliable results. It’s our goal to continue providing support, options and assistance to customers in the knowledge that we grow better together.

At AKP Group, we produce and supply over 14,000 tonnes of premium potato seed to businesses across the UK and abroad each year. We know how important it is for our network of growers to cater to their own customers’ requirements, and our team has a wealth of knowledge and expertise when it comes to the growing, storing and marketing of potato seed.

To meet growing demand for high-quality seed, we are committed to ensuring the sustainable production of our seed, ensuring long-term satisfaction – not only today, but also in the years to come. 

Last year, ongoing challenges such as adverse weather conditions and the conflict in Ukraine led to a contraction in the volume of potatoes grown, resulting in a rapid depletion of national seed production. This has forced our customers to make urgent decisions, and as a consequence, we are also now in advanced discussions with them to make longer term commitments on seed. To address potential shortages for the upcoming harvest, we encouraged our growers to secure their seed orders sooner rather than later, so that we could cater to their individual requirements. 

As we look ahead to the 2025 planting season, we are initiating and encouraging discussions about seed availability. This summer, we’re welcoming new customers to view our growing stocks of seed, to help them to choose the best options to suit their business.

Our seed supply

We’re proud of our ongoing relationships with the UK’s major seed houses, who work tirelessly to develop and supply varieties that meet and exceed expectations, amidst changing growing conditions. These long-standing relationships allow us to supply a number of potato varieties ideal for crisping, chipping and prepacking – 35 principle varieties, to be exact.

We can cater for seed supply throughout the country, from the Black Isle to Gloucestershire, and our dedicated team is on hand to support growers throughout the seed selection process. We’re here to help growers fulfil their requirements, from large-scale supply of our most popular varieties, to small quantities of lesser-known, niche varieties.

As a result of our ever-changing climate, growers are showing a preference for varieties that can withstand harsh weather conditions, and with disease resistant properties. 

The process

Healthy, high-quality seed potatoes are essential for growing vigorous, high-yielding and marketable potato crops.  

Our ability to trace our seed back to its origins allows us to consistently provide the highest quality seed potatoes. By overseeing the production of our seed, we gain extensive control over its quality. This, in turn, guarantees our growers receive precisely what they expect – premium seed at the best price.

Our seed is cultivated in optimal conditions, with a low incidence of disease and virus, and it is regularly inspected to uphold crop health. We work with our seed suppliers throughout the potato production chain, from mini-tuber production to classification. The mini-tuber production process is carried out under strict conditions, enabling our seed to have the best, disease-free start. 

Thanks to the stringent Seed Potato Classification Scheme (SPCS), which is imposed upon the entire seed production chain, our seed potatoes retain their high-health status, right up to the point of sale. Growers can rest assured knowing that our commitment to delivering excellence remains at the heart of what we do.

Our growers can be confident that they are buying and growing seed that has been produced by experts, under the best possible conditions. Working closely with them, we ensure a supply of healthy, quality and marketable produce, 365 days per year.

Planning for 2025

We possess an in-depth understanding of our crop availability and align it meticulously with the specific needs of our growers, and meet the demands of customers in the respective markets.

Given the industry’s challenge of limited seed supply, we are encouraging all customers, whether longstanding or new, to promptly establish their seed plans for the upcoming 2025 season and beyond. In anticipation of an increased demand, particularly for sought-after varieties such as King Edward, we advise growers to take proactive measures, as these varieties are expected to be in high demand sooner rather than later.

We’re open to discussions with customers who would like to discuss the availability of seed for planting as soon as possible. If you are a grower looking to realise your potential, or a customer who needs a reliable supplier, get in touch with our team today. 

Together, we will all grow better together.

This year has presented formidable challenges for the potato sector. The lingering impact of COVID-19, the ongoing conflict in Ukraine, rampant inflation, and volatile weather has resulted in a perfect storm. 

These challenges have also significantly impacted the wider agricultural industry, causing ripple effects throughout the entire global food market.

Here in the UK, challenges of late and unseasonable weather during this year’s harvest season have dominated our own thoughts, and that of the wider potato industry.

Current crop status

This season, we’ve experienced a cold, wet spring, which delayed the planting of potato seed. Summer was cooler than last year, with low light levels, and high temperatures in early September. Four named storms hit the UK during the autumn, from late September to mid-November. These contributed to exceptionally wet and, at times, stormy weather, which caused widespread impact. 

This pattern of wet weather resulted in waterlogged fields, affecting the progress of this season’s harvest significantly. Waterlogged fields result in distressed crops and, if left for too long, will result in rotten potatoes.

At the annual British Potato Show in November, the general consensus without hard data, was that up to 15% of the UK crop and 40% of the Irish crop was yet to be harvested, as a result of the poor weather.

It’s highly likely that a proportion of the crop will be left in the ground until the spring, when we will see what can be salvaged. The potatoes that are lifted will be of poorer quality with high levels of rot. The condition of these potatoes will need to be monitored closely for long-term storability.

So far in December, we’ve already experienced icy conditions and snowfall, which will only further exacerbate the condition of the potatoes in the ground. 

The Farmers Guardian estimates that the UK potato crop could be as low as 4.14 tonnes this season, compared to 6.2 million tonnes in 2017. This would make it the lowest potato crop ever recorded in the UK.

The shortages of potatoes may result in an increase in prices, and a reduction in availability.

The problems haven’t solely affected the UK crop, however. Reports from Holland suggest that up to 2 million tonnes of potatoes are unlikely to be harvested this side of Christmas.

Working with our growers and partners

On our own farm, we have about 5% of our total area left to harvest. We’re working closely with our growers to make the most of the crops that are currently being harvested.

Our transport, storage and grading facilities have never been so important. Growers are utilising our transport services to move their crops into dry conditions, while our grading services are essential for removing soil to ensure optimal crop conditions for marketing or storage.

We’re also working closely with customers to ensure that, wherever possible, supply and contract plans are interrupted as much as possible.

Looking to 2024

Our team is currently reviewing seed outputs from the 2023 harvest, to ascertain availability of seed stock, ahead of 2024 planting.

Anticipating a tight seed supply for the 2024 crop, we’re encouraging all growers and customers to get their seed plans confirmed as soon as possible. This will dictate growing plans for 2024, with the most popular and premium varieties, such as King Edward, already in very short supply.

Discussions with all customers regarding 2024 supply programmes are ongoing, and we will have contracts available for consideration throughout December. 

We’re encouraging growers and partners to sign up as soon as possible, to ensure that everyone’s expectations are met for the year ahead.

If you’d like to speak to us about your requirements for the year ahead, get in touch with a member of our team today.

We recently welcomed Wolds Produce into the AKP Group.

As one of the country’s top seed production and potato marketing businesses, Wolds Produce supplies quality seed potatoes to all sectors of the potato market.

Wolds Produce was set up as a potato trading business in 2004, offering crops from the Yorkshire Wolds region to packers. The company has since grown to become a major potato supplier in the crisping, chipping and potato seed industries, and currently trades over 50,000 tonnes of potatoes in the UK and abroad. 

By combining the expertise, resources and experience of AKP Group and Wolds Produce, we can achieve economies of scale. Our complementary partnership will drive innovation and build a stronger, more resilient supply chain, ultimately contributing to the growth of the UK farming sector.

Together, we’re working hard to elevate industry standards, improve profitability and maintain an efficient, robust supply chain.

Working with Wolds produce means that we can provide a comprehensive potato supply chain solution, from variety and seed selection, to new contracting opportunities, as well as the utilisation of superior grading and storage facilities.

All of this ensures that the right potatoes are distributed to the right market, at the right price.

Wolds Produce is also one of the largest independent seed producers in the UK, supplying high-quality seed to businesses across the country, and supplying potatoes into many of the UK’s well known crisp manufacturers.

We look forward to merging our expertise and consolidating our respective strengths to make it happen for UK farming.

We recently sponsored an important and meaningful project, Take One a Day –  a photography exhibition at Spout Yard Park Gallery in Louth, dedicated to finding positivity in nature by discovering something beautiful every day.

Created by amateur photographer Paul Gutherson in November 2020, he was compelled to share his pieces through a tragedy that changed him forever, after he unexpectedly discovered a person who had died by suicide during a morning dog walk.

It was on a stretch of the River Lud in Louth that Paul knew very well and had loved since he was a boy. The spot was intrinsically linked to the surrounding landscape he had grown up in, which had shaped him and his relationship with the world.

With the help of counselling, Paul realised he needed to reclaim his natural environment from a place of trauma and shock and use creativity to restore his joy in life. That’s when he began to take one a day; one photograph every day to help him rediscover the beauty of the Lincolnshire landscape. He searched for the positive in the huge skies above the expansive flat fields, on the beaches, along the dykes, and finally, back at the canal. He put these images out on social media every day, and began his healing journey.

Humbled by Paul’s discovery, the locality of the incident and the real mental health challenges that exist in farming communities, we felt inspired to become involved. According to the Office of National Statistics, there were 36 suicides recorded in England and Wales among those working in the farming and agricultural industry in 2021. Meanwhile, 22 farm workers lost their lives in fatal accidents in 2021/22, underlying the need for mental health resources and support.

Supporting Paul’s landscapes at the exhibition will be work from award-winning photographic artist Richard Ansett. Richard, himself a Samaritans volunteer, was invited to Louth to explore the themes through portraiture of local mental health advocates and those suffering from some of the issues raised. A further collection of this work will be unveiled in the zine Man Up.

Paul says: “Sometimes the photograph itself is not that important. It is the purposeful act of seeking something beautiful. Shutting out negative self-talk through the discipline of looking, especially on difficult days, is what becomes important.”

AKP Group’s managing director, Richard Arundel, commented: “We’re driven by people, and as partners to farmers and growers across the country, we are no strangers to the prevalent mental health challenges within farming. It can be an isolating and lonely industry at times, and we are extremely proud to be sponsors of this impactful exhibition and all that it stands for.”

A view of the market

As we look ahead to August and reflect upon months prior, challenges across the market continue to test the potato sector. Around the AKP trading desk this morning sat 90 years of collective experience, and not one of us could recall a time where we had entered August with such a tight supply situation. 

Zooming out to understand this better, a potato shortage in the market has been felt across the whole of Europe. The droughts of 2022 and a cold planting season in ‘23 resulted in low yields and a delayed early crop, conspiring to create eye-watering price hikes across the continent, challenging most businesses and supply chains.

This frame of reference is essential, the pressure is felt by all, not least while witnessing prices on the farm rise too, from a free-buy trade of £140 per tonne last season to anywhere between £460 to £700 today. 

Compounding this situation is a relatively strong demand in most sectors. The consumer, looking for value in the current climate, is responding to retail promotions and potatoes are overperforming in terms of volume when seasonally indexed, retail sales are absolutely on the up. 

It’s the same story for processing factories across Europe too, having had another strong 12 months with the demand for French fries continuing to grow. The only sectors that appear to be struggling from a demand perspective are food service, wholesale and the fish and chip industry, largely due to significant inflationary pressures set against low consumer demand, in the midst of a cost-of-living crisis. With the majority of potato crop also being contracted, and less being planted on a speculative free-buy basis, it is expected high price volatility will be here to stay for at least the next 18 months.

Regardless, we push forward, and our attention as a group now turns to ‘23 crop marketing and plans for our ‘24 crop, which are already underway with customers and growing partners. Top of the agenda is seed, and with the likelihood of many preferred varieties in short supply, grower seed visits have already begun through our seed business, Humble Potato Company. These visits will ensure our growers and customers are covered with the right quality and varieties to fulfill and realise their ‘24 growing and marketing plans. 

Reflections on the growing season

So, with the market view to guide us, how does the bigger picture inform our work in the field? To reflect upon the current season in just three words, it would have to be – wet, dry, wet! The mixed weather has certainly contributed to a demanding start, perhaps the toughest we have faced in many years. What usually takes four to five weeks to plant has taken eight, due heavy rainfall through March, April and early May.  

As such, ground conditions presented a challenge at planting, with any pre-planned field sequences quickly out the window. Nonetheless, our flexible response saw us out on the road traveling to fields that had been lucky weather-wise. Although fuel prices are down from last year, our planting costs have risen slightly due to a reduced output, prolonged machinery hire and extra land work requirements to create reasonable seedbeds.

The benefit of cover crops has also stood out this year, and it is no coincidence that these fields presented the best planting conditions. Over recent years our cover cropped area has been gradually increasing, and with some tweaking of species and timings to meet the SFI requirements, we are keen for this trend to continue. 

In keeping with the unpredictability of British summer time, the pouring rain throughout planting soon turned to irrigation. A very dry June and early July meant our time was heavily consumed by pumps, reels and pipes. Thankfully, our continued investment in drip irrigation paid off here, enabling us to maximise water availability to the crop when it was needed most. .  

Yet again, the weather pattern began to change during mid-July. The cooler temperatures and heavy rainfall across our growing area meant that most fields under our control recorded 120 to 150 millimeters of rain for the month of July. Fortunately, the rains have improved prospects for our Lincolnshire and Yorkshire crops, compensating for the poorer yields in the very south of the country. While some of our earlier varieties are a couple of weeks behind where we would expect, the yield potential of our main crop appears to be good. Now, all we need is some warmer weather in August to maximise potential!

Bringing us to August, our focus now lies with crop monitoring and yield digging to help inform our harvest, haulage, and storage plans. This week saw the last of the 2022 crop leave our stores, just in time for boxes to be sanitised and stores maintained ahead of the new crop landing. And once the first of our ware crop is flailed and desiccated in a couple of weeks’ time, the countdown to harvest is well and truly on!

Partnering our understanding of the UK and European potato market with on-the-ground, proven farming techniques tested and refined over generations helps us to mitigate the risk in the supply chain. This is how we intend to keep our customer, grower and own production sustainable into next year and beyond, despite the backdrop of a challenging market place all around. Through collaboration and partnership we always find a way through, embracing the challenge with skill, to grow better together. 

We recently had the pleasure of hosting our first Grower Partner Event, welcoming growers, friends and colleagues to spend the day with us at the stunning Wootton Hall. 

With the sector abundant with challenge and opportunity, having industry peers in the same room sparked interesting conversations, with most centered around the uncertainties we face and how to push British farming forward – a shared goal for us all. 

Kicking off a series of talks, our managing director, Richard Arundel, shared his view on the industry and the market, explaining our supply and demand model and how we ensure the best possible return for our growers. Always at the forefront of industry trends, we took guests through what to expect from farming this year and our predictions for the sector as we move closer to 2024. 

With farming a crucial area of the AKP group, we spoke about the latest regenerative farming techniques and our grower joint ventures, the latter designed to add value and share the risk, while ensuring a trusted presence remains at grower’s side from planting to harvest. 

Then onto where it all truly begins, seed – sharing developments within Humble Potato Company and our collaboration with the very best seed breeders in the business.

To ensure balance and insight, the day ended with a talk from HSBC’s Head of Agricultural Banking, Martin Hanson, who shed light on what to expect from the sector and HSBC’s outlook on agricultural business for the years ahead. Culminating in a day of thoughtful discussion enjoyed over tasty Ploughman’s platters and refreshments served by our sister company, Edwards 1902 Vodka. 

This event was the first of many we hope to host, all with the view of bringing to the sector together to tackle issues head on and share knowledge. Thank you to all who attended, we appreciate your participation in what was a fantastic day. 

It is without doubt that today’s potato growers face challenges. With farming and storage costs rising, the bumps in the road are bigger than ever before. But, the presence of risk often brings reward, and it’s how we mitigate the uncertainty to protect the sector that truly matters.

At the moment the optimism can be hard to find, with the World Potato Markets estimating a 10 per cent reduction in land being used to grow potatoes this year. Spiraling costs are at play, with energy bills up by 165 per cent, fertiliser by 40 per cent and workforce costs by 13 per cent, resulting in some growers turning their back on potatoes altogether.

But, what would the sector look like without British potato farming? Do we still hold our value? Due to the implications of Brexit, it is more difficult than ever to import potatoes from the continent, which in turn creates resistance from importers wanting to ship to the UK. This actually increases the value of UK-produced potatoes, with buying British also remaining a key pull for retail customers. Not only that, growers in continental Europe face the same challenges as growers here too. Costs are rising at the same proportion across the board, the answer is in how we respond.

Economically, the bigger picture still looks bright, so finding solutions right now to regain stability is our main motivation. Through our grower joint ventures we take 100 per cent of a grower’s potato production and market their crop to our extensive network both in the UK and Europe, underpinned by a commitment from us to work with the grower to ensure their potato enterprise is profitable. This way of working provides a healthy return for growers with an easy route to market to keep them in business.

But nevertheless, why should growers stick with potatoes? Quite simply, the“British farmed” message benefits retailers and continues to be a desirable asset when it comes to customer purchasing decisions. This is backed by recent Onepoll research that reports 73% of the public often or always look specifically for British food when shopping, with 75% voicing a positive view of UK farming, amounting to record breaking levels of support for the sector. This trend shows no sign of slowing down, as we see the British farmed message continuing to create demand in the retail space.

This trend is further evidenced through the financial backing the sector has seen by some of the industry’s bigger players. For example, McCain recently announced an investment worth £35m for its farmers, by committing to a 31 per cent contract indexation increase. This is followed by the company’s £5m energy support package made last year. With big potato processors stepping up to support the industry shows its economic value.

But, the vision has to balance with practical solutions that ease financial pressures being felt right now, particularly in relation to energy costs. Our storage facility is available to growers and has capacity to hold 36,000 tonnes of potatoes, utilising modern state-of-the-art computer controlled cold stores to keep potatoes in the very best condition. Storing potatoes with us allows for not only peace of mind but for growers to spread and elevate their marketing plans with the additional capacity to store.

Undoubtedly, the industry is experiencing a period of change and uncertainty, but all is not lost. The key is being able to adapt to the volatility and preserve the future of British farming for the benefit of all  – grower, retailer and the consumer. Tackling challenges with both realism and optimism to evolve the sector. To quote the American philosopher, Nicholas M Butler: “Optimism is essential to achievement and it is also the foundation of courage and true progression.”